TRM Labs: Iranian Crypto Flows Fall to $3.7B in 2025 as Nobitex Hack, Tether Freezes and Geopolitics Erode Trust

TRM Labs reported that Iran’s crypto economy contracted in early 2025 amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a major exchange hack, with total cryptocurrency flows involving Iranian entities falling to about $3.7 billion between January and July 2025 — an 11% decline from the same period in 2024 and sharp month‑over‑month drops after April, including a more than 50% fall in June and a 76% collapse in July.

The analysis attributes the downturn to a June escalation with Israel, widespread power outages, and the June 18 $90 million Nobitex breach (attributed to the pro‑Israel group Predatory Sparrow), which disrupted liquidity and eroded trust in domestic virtual asset service providers; TRM found Nobitex handled over 87% of Iranian‑linked volumes and that roughly $2 billion of its $3 billion throughput moved via the TRON network. TRM also highlighted Tether’s large freeze of Iranian‑linked addresses, continued outbound flows underscoring crypto’s role in capital flight, shifts by users toward DAI and Polygon, the emergence of a domestic KYC‑bypass market, and documented instances of crypto used for procurement and alleged espionage — concluding that Iran’s crypto ecosystem shows resilience but faces rising systemic risk and declining public confidence.